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Michael Gove, John von Neumann, and the Reverend Thomas Bayes

Michael Gove’s thoughtful, even inspiring, Ditchley lecture confirmed his reputation as an unusually intellectual exception to the uninspiring norm of our politicians....

The Two Envelope Problem

You are offered the choice of two envelopes and are told that one contains twice as much money as the other. You make...

Radical Uncertainty: Video Recordings

Although future events have been cancelled due to coronavirus, several talks about Radical Uncertainty have been recorded. The discussion and questions at...

The Radical Uncertainties of Coronavirus

When we set out two years ago to write a book on radical uncertainty, and when we delivered it last year and agreed...

Coronavirus: A Black Swan?

Describing uncertainty - why coronavirus is neither a ‘black swan’ nor a low probability event The manuscript of Radical...

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty by John Kay and Mervyn King is released 5th March 2020 in the UK. Pre-order a copy here.

Does God Play Dice?

Socrates: “I dare say that you are familiar with Tisias.  Does he not define probability to be that which the many think?”