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The Two Envelope Problem

You are offered the choice of two envelopes and are told that one contains twice as much money as the other. You make...

Radical Uncertainty: Video Recordings

Although future events have been cancelled due to coronavirus, several talks about Radical Uncertainty have been recorded. The discussion and questions at...

The Radical Uncertainties of Coronavirus

When we set out two years ago to write a book on radical uncertainty, and when we delivered it last year and agreed...

Coronavirus: A Black Swan?

Describing uncertainty - why coronavirus is neither a ‘black swan’ nor a low probability event The manuscript of Radical...

Radical Uncertainty: Capital Ideas Podcast

John and Mervyn spoke with Matt Miller of Capital Ideas about Radical Uncertainty. Listen to the podcast here!

Radical Uncertainty Released

Radical Uncertainty, coauthored by myself and Mervyn King, has been published! Order it on Amazon, or pick it up at any good...

The Point Of Probabilities

Osama bin Laden masterminded the attack on Manhattan’s World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, and US military preparations for a possible invasion of Iraq...

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty by John Kay and Mervyn King is released 5th March 2020 in the UK. Pre-order a copy here.

Is the Rate of Change of GDP the Best Way to...

In May 2018 I and other academics discussed the role of GDP at the Royal Society. You can...

Does God Play Dice?

Socrates: “I dare say that you are familiar with Tisias.  Does he not define probability to be that which the many think?”