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Discrimination in University Admissions

The use of algorithms to award examination grades has led to chaos. Readers of the chapter on Probability and the Law in...

Embracing obliquity at a time of radical uncertainty

I recently spoke with Dr Lígia Teixeria, CEO of the Centre for Homelessness Impact, on the importance of understanding obliquity and radical...

Michael Gove, John von Neumann, and the Reverend Thomas Bayes

Michael Gove’s thoughtful, even inspiring, Ditchley lecture confirmed his reputation as an unusually intellectual exception to the uninspiring norm of our politicians....

The Two Envelope Problem

You are offered the choice of two envelopes and are told that one contains twice as much money as the other. You make...

Radical Uncertainty: Video Recordings

Although future events have been cancelled due to coronavirus, several talks about Radical Uncertainty have been recorded. The discussion and questions at...

The Radical Uncertainties of Coronavirus

When we set out two years ago to write a book on radical uncertainty, and when we delivered it last year and agreed...

Coronavirus: A Black Swan?

Describing uncertainty - why coronavirus is neither a ‘black swan’ nor a low probability event The manuscript of Radical...

Radical Uncertainty: Capital Ideas Podcast

John and Mervyn spoke with Matt Miller of Capital Ideas about Radical Uncertainty. Listen to the podcast here!

Radical Uncertainty Released

Radical Uncertainty, coauthored by myself and Mervyn King, has been published! Order it on Amazon, or pick it up at any good...

The Point Of Probabilities

Osama bin Laden masterminded the attack on Manhattan’s World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, and US military preparations for a possible invasion of Iraq...

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