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Michael Gove, John von Neumann, and the Reverend Thomas Bayes

Michael Gove’s thoughtful, even inspiring, Ditchley lecture confirmed his reputation as an unusually intellectual exception to the uninspiring norm of our politicians....

The Meaning of R

Rarely has a parameter in a model attracted so much attention as the number R - the reproduction rate of covid-19 infection....

The Radical Uncertainties of Coronavirus

When we set out two years ago to write a book on radical uncertainty, and when we delivered it last year and agreed...

Coronavirus: A Black Swan?

Describing uncertainty - why coronavirus is neither a ‘black swan’ nor a low probability event The manuscript of Radical...