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Tag: Forecasting

The Jolly Swagman: A Practical Guide to Coping with Uncertainty

John spoke with Joe Walker about radical uncertainty, how we can cope with it in practice, and how understanding this gives us...

Teams of foxes make the best forecasts, but expert hedgehogs can...

In Superforecasting , by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, a distinction is made between hedgehogs that know one big thing, and foxes that know many little things. Through experimentation, teams of foxes have been shown to make better predictions. Yet governments and businesses still prefer the narrative approach offered by hedgehogs, perhaps with good reason.