What is the chance of your being guilty?
Reverend Bayes could not to go to court; his insights should
These are desolate times for the dismal science
In a letter to his niece John writes about the demise of economics
Political decisions are not a matter of statistics
The report regarding the Chancellor’s five tests for joining the Euro might provide an impressive economic analysis; yet as we all know it will be a pointless one too
The real economy: May 2003
The last fifteen years has been one of the most remarkable periods in economic history. But the American model on which most economic thinking and policy making has been based is not only unattractive, it is inaccurate - both about human motivation and how socially embedded markets actually operate
A waiter calls the top of the property market
A revealing dinner party conversation on house prices.
A strategy for hedge funds and dangerous drivers
There are business lessons to be drawn from the bad habits of French drivers. We need to beware of activities whose outcomes have a Taleb distribution - many small gains punctuated by occasional large losses.
The Gift of the Magi
Not only does O Henry’s The Gift of the Magi tell us about the spirit of Christmas - its handy for economics students as well.
Reflections on the New Economy
John recalls his thinking during the extraordinary years of the 'new economy'.
Rational decision making (FT Summer School)
The classical theory of rational decision-making under uncertainty has been evolving for over 200 years, since Daniel Bernoulli and Rev...
In search of self-interest
He is self interested, materialistic, and obsessed with calculating his worth. But who is the rational economic man?