Obliquity
Strange as it may seem, overcoming geographic obstacles, winning decisive battles or meeting global business targets are the type of goals often best achieved when pursued indirectly. This is the idea of Obliquity. Oblique approaches are most effective in difficult terrain, or where outcomes depend on interactions with other people.
Economic forecasting will never be an exact science
John explains why reliable economic forecasting is, in principle, impossible
Too many polls are apt to harm a democracy
Following and trying to manipulate public opinion too closely can lead to a superficially participative democracy. As the recent example in California demonstrates, in this context the emergence of inspirational leaders is unlikely.
Why the world is not on Britain’s side
John explores one of the most enduring questions of all Englishmen abroad. Why do foreigners drive on the wrong side of the road?
What is the chance of your being guilty?
Reverend Bayes could not to go to court; his insights should
Investors, rejoice: BT is back where it started
From four consecutive failures of strategy in British Telecom we learn that policy making in business requires more than slogans and visions.
Department of Trade and Industry/Forum for the Future
Lessons from ICI’s transformation; a lecture at the Department of Trade and Industry/Forum for the Future.
A waiter calls the top of the property market
A revealing dinner party conversation on house prices.
Previous convictions: April 2003
I used to share the physics envy of many economists. The responses to Bjorn Llomborg's book have helped change my mind.
A strategy for hedge funds and dangerous drivers
There are business lessons to be drawn from the bad habits of French drivers. We need to beware of activities whose outcomes have a Taleb distribution - many small gains punctuated by occasional large losses.