Extremes among observed outcomes are much more often the product of “off-model” events than the result of vanishingly small probabilities. The implication is that most risk models are unsuitable for the principal purpose for which they are devised: protecting financial institutions against severe embarrassment or catastrophic failure.
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18 February 2015, Financial Times
06 January 2015, Financial Times
The people who ran big companies were always relatively well paid, but the meaning of “relatively well paid” is now altogether different. Finance employs more people, recruits more able people and pays them a lot more. These effects have not been seen in countries, such as France and Germany, that have proved more resistant to financialisation.
27 August 2014, Financial Times
Much of the complexity of modern finance is the result of regulatory arbitrage – avoiding or minimising restrictions by engaging in a transaction with more or less identical effect but more favourable regulatory treatment. Many regulators still cling to the hope that it could be eliminated if only rules were sufficiently extensive and sufficiently carefully prescribed. But this is an illusion.
11 June 2014
What does the death rate from violent accident in England over seven centuries tell us about moral hazard in the financial system?
04 June 2014
John contrasts Timothy Geithner’s firefighting approach to financial crises with the analysis of their political origins of Calomiris and Haber in Fragile by Design
21 May 2014
Economics students are – yet again – expressing dissatisfaction with the content of their curriculum. They are right
26 March 2014, Financial Times
Just as dammed water finds new channels of escape, crowdfunding seems to provide a way around the blockage.
11 December 2013, Financial Times
Although transactions with low probability of large loss and high probability of small gain carry the potential for disaster, they can appear attractive for a very long time – perhaps for ever.
23 October 2013, Financial Times
If I had a million pounds for every time I have heard a possible reform opposed because “it wouldn’t have prevented Northern Rock or Lehman Brothers going bust”, I might now have enough money to bail out a bank.
16 October 2013, Financial Times
Financial economics, for half a century a showpiece in economic departments, is today struggling to maintain credibility in the face of the financial instability of the past two decades.
14 January 2011, Scottish Affairs
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