In Superforecasting , by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, a distinction is made between hedgehogs that know one big thing, and foxes that know many little things. Through experimentation, teams of foxes have been shown to make better predictions. Yet governments and businesses still prefer the narrative approach offered by hedgehogs, perhaps with good reason.
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06 January 2016, Financial Times
04 November 2015, Financial Times
The Airports Commission reported in July, with a clear recommendation to build a new runway and terminal at Heathrow. It relied heavily on an elaborate modelling exercise that calculated costs and benefits for the next 50 years. Little weight should be attached to these calculations. And more consideration should be given to the Gatwick proposal.
01 July 2015, Financial Times
Projects acquire political momentum of their own. The original rationale is forgotten, if indeed it ever existed. And so it has been with HS2, the project to build a high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham and then to the north of England.
22 April 2015, Financial Times
We are all subject to confirmation bias — a tendency to find, or interpret, facts to support opinions we already hold. But truthiness is more extreme, occuring when conviction is prized over information.
14 January 2015, Financial Times
In the face of an event like the attack on Charlie Hebdo, the urge to respond decisively is natural and strong. But the bias to immediacy and action is as pervasive in finance as it is in politics.
17 December 2014, Financial Times
The belief that an aggregate of casual opinions provides a better process of value discovery than a flow of informed judgment through close engagement by investors, is an article of faith rather than a matter of empirical evidence.
10 September 2014, Financial Times
While most of the debate surrounding Scottish independence has been about economic matters, the economic arguments are far from conclusive either way. The real questions concern the sort of country Scots and Scotland’s residents want. The nation’s political future will drive the economics.
03 September 2014, Financial Times
We have a large consultancy business of transport modellers, environmental experts, risk managers and impact assessment modellers, the front line of an army that has turned evidence-based policy into policy-based evidence.
09 April 2014, Financial Times
In today’s world of global business and finance, people make agreements in whatever currency they like and under whatever legal system they choose.
21 March 2014, Financial Times
The man who “laboureth much, and sparing the fruits of his labour, consumeth little” should not, Hobbes argued, pay more “than he that liveth idlely, getteth little, and spendeth all he gets”.
01 September 2010, Financial Times
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