Extremes among observed outcomes are much more often the product of “off-model” events than the result of vanishingly small probabilities. The implication is that most risk models are unsuitable for the principal purpose for which they are devised: protecting financial institutions against severe embarrassment or catastrophic failure.
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18 February 2015, Financial Times
28 May 2014
The correlation between a temperate climate and economic prosperity is clear and striking. What are the causes?
07 May 2014
The history of ICI and the British pharmaceutical industry may provide some pointers to show how shareholders and policymakers should react to Pfizer’s bid for Astra Zeneca.
19 March 2014, Financial Times
The test of an organisational structure is not how it handles success but how it copes when things go wrong.
05 March 2014, Financial Times
The most important source of economic advance comes not from doing the same things better, but from achieving the same objective in a completely different way.
12 February 2014, Financial Times
Big data can help us understand the past and the present but it can help us understand the future only to the extent that the future is, in some relevant way, contained in the present.
29 January 2014, Financial Times
The dispersion of productivity among already rich countries has increased. Norway and Switzerland have surged ahead but laggards such as Italy – and indeed Britain – have struggled to keep up with the pack.
18 December 2013, Financial Times
To say comparisons of academic performance are always imperfect and open to revision is not to say they cannot be made at all.
27 November 2013, Financial Times
The Olympiad was a good party, which cost the British population about £200 per head.
13 November 2013, Financial Times
Nuclear power and financial systems both have the capacity to blow up the world. Perhaps there are lessons from one for the other.
14 January 2011, Scottish Affairs
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